Africa is home to the fastest-growing population on the planet, with projections suggesting that by 2050, over 2.4 billion people will live on the continent. Feeding this population poses one of the most significant policy challenges for African leaders. Today, around 10% of Africa’s 1.5 billion people experience severe food insecurity, often going days without a proper meal. Adding another 900 million people to the continent’s population raises an urgent question: how will Africa feed its people?
Next week, African leaders, development partners, and stakeholders will gather in Kigali for the African Food Systems Forum to discuss strategies for transforming the continent’s agriculture. The forum, with the involvement of the African Union, aims to develop a 10-year plan to reshape African agriculture and ensure food security for the future.
At the heart of the discussion is how to reform Africa’s smallholder farms. These 33 million small-scale farms produce 70% of the continent’s food but suffer from some of the lowest yields globally. The debate over how to improve these farms has sparked intense controversy, with the most influential figure in this debate being none other than Bill Gates, the world’s seventh-richest person. Gates, who has no direct experience in farming but owns over 100,000 hectares of farmland in the U.S., believes that modern, industrial agricultural practices can solve Africa’s food crisis.
Gates’ solution involves increasing the size of African farms, introducing genetically modified hybrid seeds, and using chemical fertilizers and pesticides. In the U.S., where farming is highly industrialized, maize yields reach 11 tonnes per hectare. By comparison, Kenyan farmers average just 1.4 tonnes per hectare. Gates argues that bridging this gap through industrial farming methods can ensure food security across Africa.
However, the industrial model advocated by Gates has faced significant pushback, particularly from African farmers and civil society groups. Critics argue that these practices undermine local food systems and increase farmers’ vulnerability to climate change. For example, Zambia, a country that embraced Gates’ model by implementing a subsidy program to promote hybrid seeds and fertilizers, now faces one of its worst droughts, with half of its maize crops lost. Instead of increasing food security, Zambia’s adoption of industrial agriculture has led to greater dependency on external inputs, degraded soil quality, and widespread food shortages.
Mary Sakala, a Zambian farmer and chairperson of the Rural Women’s Assembly, said: “We used to grow diverse crops, but now governments and agribusiness have pushed farmers into monoculture that depends on inputs. Their programs have made us all vulnerable.”
Broader studies have questioned the effectiveness of Gates’ approach. A 2021 study commissioned by the Gates Foundation itself concluded that the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (Agra) failed to meet its goal of improving incomes and food security for smallholder farmers. Despite these findings, Gates’ influence on African agricultural policy remains significant.
The Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa, representing over 200 million smallholder farmers, has voiced its opposition to Gates’ industrial model, arguing that it prioritizes corporate profit over people and exacerbates farmers’ vulnerability to external shocks. They advocate for more sustainable, locally driven agricultural solutions.
As the debate continues, one thing remains clear: the future of African agriculture—and the food security of millions—will be shaped by the decisions made in Kigali next week. Whether through industrial or traditional methods, Africa must find a way to feed its rapidly growing population and ensure its farmers are resilient in the face of global challenges.
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